269 N Winchester Rd #7

Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$17,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 205 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,821/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$89
• Tax + insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $1,321/mo
• Annual: $15,850/yr
• Cap rate: 99.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 332.98%
• DSCR: 15.82
• 1% rule: 10.71%
• Cash to close: $4,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $17k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $17k).
• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $15k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $118 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $510 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 99.5% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.