3971 Route 430

Bemus Point, NY 14712

$324,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,542 sqft · Built 1915 · MultiFamily · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,448/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax + insurance: −$650
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $374/mo
• Annual: $4,492/yr
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $90,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $324k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $324k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#539 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.6% in Bemus Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.