19100 Eltham Rd

West Point, VA 23181

$225,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,187/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $359/mo
• Annual: $4,305/yr
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.83%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (2.8% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in VA, #3,458 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• New Kent County Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #32 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: George W. Watkins Elementary (math 63% / reading 72%, grade B+, #372 of 1,108 statewide, top 34%, 439 students, 26% FRL); New Kent High (math 66% / reading 82%, grade B+, #120 of 319 statewide, top 38%, 1,120 students, 25% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in New Kent County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Kent County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $154k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.4% in West Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.