4031 Tumble Wood Trl #204

University, FL 33613

$119,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Active · 195 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,521/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$395
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-50/mo
• Annual: $-605/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $33,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-605/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (7.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in FL, #603 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chiles Elementary School (math 81% / reading 78%, grade A, #116 of 2,144 statewide, top 6%, 875 students, 37% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,081 students, 45% FRL); Freedom High School (math 23% / reading 39%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,837 students, 54% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in University — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.