115 Melrose Ave

Bulls Gap, TN 37711

$149,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 1988 · Other · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,028/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-224/mo
• Annual: $-2,682/yr
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.39%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (31.4% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#379 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $150k implies a 1399% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.