125 Blackwater Rd

Rochester, NH 03867

$429,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · Built 1965 · MultiFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,776/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax + insurance: −$706
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$793
• Net cashflow: $27/mo
• Annual: $330/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $120,120

Investor read

• This is a 1×1bd/1.0ba + 1×2bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $429k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($330/yr) — positive. Per door: $14/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $378k (12.0% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $378k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#8 in NH, #698 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-.
• Rochester School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #83 of 98 in NH (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chamberlain Street School (math 24% / reading 27%, grade F, #227 of 263 statewide, top 86%, 298 students, 45% FRL); Rochester Middle School (math 18% / reading 27%, grade F, #85 of 96 statewide, top 89%, 847 students, 37% FRL); Spaulding High School (math 30% / reading 49%, grade F, #63 of 90 statewide, top 74%, 1,301 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 951 units permitted in Strafford County in 2024 (551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Strafford County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 43% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $260k; list at $429k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,776/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 663% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.