6266 1st Ave S #29

St. Petersburg, FL 33707

$119,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 575 sqft · Built 1964 · Condo · Active · 255 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,574/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$455
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-142/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-142/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (1.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bear Creek Elementary School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 286 students, 82% FRL); Azalea Middle School (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #503 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 678 students, 74% FRL); Boca Ciega High School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,423 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 462 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $120k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?