469 Girard St

Elim, PA 15905

$129,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,134/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax + insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-776/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $36,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-776/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (12.5% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#992 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Westmont Hilltop SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #252 of 539 in PA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westmont Hilltop El Sch (math 37% / reading 49%, grade F, #873 of 1,518 statewide, top 58%, 739 students, 47% FRL); Westmont Hilltop Jshs (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #138 of 437 statewide, top 34%, 725 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 24% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.