1907 Arrowhead Ln

Conashaugh Lakes, PA 18337

$94,900B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Built 2024 · Land · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,410/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$227
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $231/mo
• Annual: $2,771/yr
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.43%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $26,572

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#786 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dingman-Delaware El Sch (math 41% / reading 68%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 502 students, 51% FRL); Dingman-Delaware Ms (math 20% / reading 57%, grade F, #275 of 512 statewide, top 55%, 524 students, 45% FRL); Delaware Valley Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 1,418 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 298 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.2% in Conashaugh Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.