769 Ashman

Orbisonia, PA 17243

$103,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 964 sqft · Built 1600 · SingleFamily · Pending · 262 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,004/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $128/mo
• Annual: $1,539/yr
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.29%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $29,092

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (3.3% below list).
• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($718 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,123 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, commute D, schools F.
• Southern Huntingdon County SD (rural): math 22% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #428 of 539 in PA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1600 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Huntingdon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Huntingdon County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1600 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.