Arbor Plan

Ave Maria, FL 34142

$256,862B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 266 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,545
• Tax + insurance: −$643
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$798
• Net cashflow: $814/mo
• Annual: $9,774/yr
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.06%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $82,477

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $257k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $257k).
• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 451 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $82k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,800/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.