4820 Carefree Trl

West Palm Beach, FL 33415

$119,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Active · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,964/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$1,100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-371/mo
• Annual: $-4,447/yr
• Cap rate: 2.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.35%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $65k (45.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (45.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#75 in FL, #1,255 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Melaleuca Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 537 students, 72% FRL); Palm Springs Middle School (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #443 of 571 statewide, top 78%, 1,521 students, 72% FRL); John I. Leonard High School (math 17% / reading 35%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 3,549 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 56% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.8% in West Palm Beach — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen countertops — Cluttered and need cleaning.
• Minor: Bathroom counters — Cluttered and need cleaning.
• Minor: Landscaping — Some plants need trimming and repositioning.