2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,867 sqft ·
Built 1920
· Townhouse
· Active
· 11 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,076/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$781
Tax + insurance
−$582
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$436
Net cashflow
$276/mo
Annual
$3,316/yr
Cap rate
8.52%
Cash-on-cash
7.95%
DSCR
1.35
1% rule
1.39%
Cash to close
$41,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $149k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Edison Middle (math 12% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,596 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 460 students, 96% FRL); Austin H S (math 9% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,530 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,448 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,076/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1H0R375W9YV01G
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29