1940 Repp Cir #1940

Highland Springs, VA 23075

$182,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,085 sqft · Built 1974 · Townhouse · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,938/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$111
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $295/mo
• Annual: $3,537/yr
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.94%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $50,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $182k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $182k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cashell Donahoe Elementary (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,108 statewide, top 92%, 514 students, 90% FRL); Elko Middle (math 16% / reading 33%, grade F, #336 of 342 statewide, top 98%, 730 students, 89% FRL); Highland Springs High (math 33% / reading 67%, grade D+, #298 of 319 statewide, top 93%, 2,089 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 34% district-wide (55 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Henrico County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.9% in Highland Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.