20850 San Simeon Way Unit 506-5

Ives Estates, FL 33179

$270,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,639/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$450
• HOA: −$972
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-753/mo
• Annual: $-9,041/yr
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.96%
• DSCR: 0.47
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-753 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (40.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (2.3% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (40.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#191 in FL, #3,061 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Norland Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 562 students, 77% FRL); Andover Middle School (math 16% / reading 33%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 452 students, 71% FRL); Miami Norland Senior High School (math 16% / reading 29%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 1,580 students, 70% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 810 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 86d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 10285% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,639/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 21% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?