9821 Turnbow St Unit AB

Houston, TX 77029

$395,000D

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Built 2026 · MultiFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,051/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax + insurance: −$658
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$641
• Net cashflow: $-319/mo
• Annual: $-3,834/yr
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $110,600

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $395k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-319 ($-4k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-160/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (22.8% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $305k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pyburn El (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 461 students, 90% FRL); Woodland Acres Middle (math 35% / reading 34%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 603 students, 85% FRL); Galena Park H S (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,914 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,051/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 457% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?