209 Wallen Dr

Van Lear, KY 41265

$60,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 217 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,002/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $431/mo
• Annual: $5,173/yr
• Cap rate: 14.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.79%
• DSCR: 2.37
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $16,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnson County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #103 of 165 in KY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Porter Elementary School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #434 of 676 statewide, top 69%, 412 students, 55% FRL); Johnson County Middle School (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 475 students, 61% FRL); Johnson Central High School (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #200 of 254 statewide, top 79%, 955 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.
• Johnson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $60k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.