15060 Goujon Gates Dr

Porter Heights, TX 77302

$423,990F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,548 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,494/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,223
• Tax + insurance: −$330
• HOA: −$116
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-700/mo
• Annual: $-8,399/yr
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.07%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $118,717

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $424k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-700 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (41.2% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($411k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $249k (41.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.