8355 Valley Grn

Breinigsville, PA 18051

$469,995D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,215 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,773/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax + insurance: −$682
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-1,081/mo
• Annual: $-12,975/yr
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.86%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $131,599

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $470k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (40.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (41.0% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($463k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $277k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,251 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Parkland SD (suburban): math 59% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kernsville Sch (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #89 of 1,518 statewide, top 7%, 447 students, 24% FRL); Orefield Ms (math 33% / reading 60%, grade D+, #172 of 512 statewide, top 35%, 917 students, 36% FRL); Parkland Hs (math 81% / reading 24%, grade C-, #107 of 437 statewide, top 25%, 3,220 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.