4911 Surf Ave

New York, NY 11224

$1,650,000C

None bd · None ba · 3,762 sqft · Built 1930 · MultiFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $14,517/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,653
• Tax + insurance: −$1,446
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,049
• Net cashflow: $1,369/mo
• Annual: $16,431/yr
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $462,000

Investor read

• This is a 2×3bd/2ba + 1×2bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $1.65M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive. Per door: $456/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.45M (12.0% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.60M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.45M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $94k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $82k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.13M; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $462k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$150k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $14,517/mo this rent would consume 399% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 4426% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.