3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,299 sqft ·
Built 2023
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 6 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,692/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,044
Tax + insurance
−$299
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$355
Net cashflow
$-5/mo
Annual
$-66/yr
Cap rate
6.26%
Cash-on-cash
-0.12%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$55,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-66/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.0% below list).
Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $169k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#297 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Phenix City (suburban): math 22% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #59 of 129 in AL (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Westview Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #424 of 627 statewide, top 68%, 421 students, 79% FRL); Phenix City Intermediate School (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #129 of 257 statewide, top 52%, 1,044 students, 80% FRL); Central High School (math 26% / reading 21%, grade F, #139 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,495 students, 74% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 183 units permitted in Russell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Russell County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.1% in Phenix City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1KQEXHEZM243PH
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29