12615 Brookglade Cir #411

Houston, TX 77099

$39,900A-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 534 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $922/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$238
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $31/mo
• Annual: $375/yr
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.49%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 2.31%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($375/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($922 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alexander El (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 676 students, 89% FRL); Holub Middle (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 791 students, 87% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $122/mo; HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?