259 Hebron Rd

Commerce, GA 30530

$135,000A-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,690/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $530/mo
• Annual: $6,359/yr
• Cap rate: 11.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.82%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $530 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Banks County (rural): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #75 of 174 in GA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Banks County Primary School (706 students, 56% FRL); Banks County Middle School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #196 of 470 statewide, top 42%, 641 students, 54% FRL); Banks County High School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #297 of 424 statewide, top 74%, 857 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Banks County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Banks County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $135k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.3% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.