1230 Churchill Ct

Buffalo Grove, IL 60089

$325,000F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,017 sqft · Built 1987 · Townhouse · Coming Soon · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,582/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-206/mo
• Annual: $-2,476/yr
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (20.6% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $258k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#163 in IL, #3,025 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, health & safety C-, commute F.
• Adlai E Stevenson Hsd 125 (suburban): math 72% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #3 of 620 in IL (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Adlai E Stevenson High School (math 72% / reading 73%, grade B+, #7 of 693 statewide, top 1%, 4,489 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Buffalo Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.