18314 Blue Heron Dr W #103

Novi, MI 48168

$575,000D

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,310 sqft · Built 1990 · Condo · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$674
• HOA: −$551
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$902
• Net cashflow: $-846/mo
• Annual: $-10,146/yr
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.30%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $161,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $575k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-846 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $426k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $430k (25.3% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($540k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $426k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#20 in MI, #377 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Northville Public Schools (suburban): math 68% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #4 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Wood Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #51 of 1,397 statewide, top 5%, 436 students, 6% FRL); Meads Mill Middle School (math 65% / reading 74%, grade A, #28 of 493 statewide, top 6%, 671 students, 9% FRL); Northville High School (math 68% / reading 86%, grade A-, #11 of 713 statewide, top 2%, 2,499 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 23 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $74k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $390k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.8% in Novi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?