227 Mankato Ave

Winona, MN 55987

$195,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,155 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,558/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-19/mo
• Annual: $-224/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-224/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (20.1% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $156k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#63 in MN, #1,558 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Winona Area Public School District (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #244 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.0%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Winona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winona County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $195k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Winona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.