5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,190 sqft ·
Built 2021
· Manufactured
· Active
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,136/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,835
Tax + insurance
−$389
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$449
Net cashflow
$-537/mo
Annual
$-6,440/yr
Cap rate
4.88%
Cash-on-cash
-5.04%
DSCR
0.78
1% rule
0.61%
Cash to close
$98,000
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $350k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-537 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (27.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (39.0% below list).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $214k (39.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#694 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: West Defuniak Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 669 students, 69% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); Walton High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 856 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Market conditions: 423 active listings in the ZIP; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $2,136/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 356% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1MFPBA9DDSNKC4
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29