Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40291
$126,998C-
3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,225 sqft ·
Built 1979
· Condo
· Active
· 7 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,704/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$666
Tax + insurance
−$174
HOA
−$360
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$358
Net cashflow
$146/mo
Annual
$1,750/yr
Cap rate
7.67%
Cash-on-cash
4.92%
DSCR
1.22
1% rule
1.34%
Cash to close
$35,559
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $127k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.0%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 9677% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $102k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1MJ6A35X9TQHHC
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29