Pinnacle (Sawyier) Plan

Lexington-Fayette, KY 40324

$111,995B

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,027 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 320 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,154/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $428/mo
• Annual: $5,136/yr
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.38%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.92%
• Cash to close: $31,359

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $112k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $112k).
• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Scott County (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Western Elementary School (math 48% / reading 49%, grade D, #110 of 676 statewide, top 17%, 624 students, 34% FRL); Scott County Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #32 of 217 statewide, top 15%, 864 students, 35% FRL); Scott County High School (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #73 of 254 statewide, top 28%, 1,197 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 546 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Scott County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.