3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,686 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 313 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,210/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$682
Tax + insurance
−$177
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$254
Net cashflow
$97/mo
Annual
$1,167/yr
Cap rate
7.19%
Cash-on-cash
3.21%
DSCR
1.14
1% rule
0.93%
Cash to close
$36,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (6.9% below list).
It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
9 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1N2P5FEFNW4S99
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29