523 W 121 St #22

New York, NY 10027

$445,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Built 1926 · Condo · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,271/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$742
• HOA: −$1,781
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$897
• Net cashflow: $-1,482/mo
• Annual: $-17,785/yr
• Cap rate: 2.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.27%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $445k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (48.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $427k (4.0% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $231k (48.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,271/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 5635% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Severe damage to the cabinets
• Major: Kitchen countertops — Worn and damaged
• Major: Kitchen appliances — Outdated and in poor condition
• Major: Bathroom tub and sink — In poor condition
• Major: Bathroom walls — Peeling paint
• Major: Exterior siding — Peeling and needs replacement