1249 Gary Dr

St. Paul Park, MN 55071

$309,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,702/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax + insurance: −$383
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $127/mo
• Annual: $1,519/yr
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $86,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (12.8% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $270k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Nuevas Fronteras Spanish Immersion (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #492 of 857 statewide, top 61%, 499 students, 16% FRL); Oltman Middle School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D, #113 of 258 statewide, top 45%, 969 students, 36% FRL); Park High School (math 39% / reading 63%, grade D+, #127 of 471 statewide, top 27%, 1,938 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.