126 Southshore Dr

Rockwell, AR 71913

$200,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 276 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,383/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-142/mo
• Annual: $-1,707/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (30.8% below list).
• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#81 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Hamilton School District (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 238 in AR (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Hamilton Primary School (666 students, 69% FRL); Lake Hamilton Middle School (math 30% / reading 37%, grade F, #129 of 201 statewide, top 64%, 631 students, 66% FRL); Lake Hamilton High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #119 of 292 statewide, top 43%, 936 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.5% in Rockwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.