202 Patriots Village Ct

West Point, VA 23181

$279,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2009 · Townhouse · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,675/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-435/mo
• Annual: $-5,215/yr
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.68%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-435 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (40.0% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in VA, #3,458 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• West Point Public School District (town): math 63% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #17 of 131 in VA (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: West Point Elementary (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #171 of 1,108 statewide, top 17%, 370 students, 40% FRL); West Point Middle/High (math 57% / reading 80%, grade B, #178 of 319 statewide, top 56%, 440 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 129 units permitted in King William County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in West Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.