539 Shady Brook Ln

Pell City, AL 35054

$119,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,699/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $635/mo
• Annual: $7,617/yr
• Cap rate: 12.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.86%
• DSCR: 2.02
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#50 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Pell City (town): math 17% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #67 of 129 in AL (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coosa Valley Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #121 of 627 statewide, top 21%, 486 students, 54% FRL); Pell City High School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #181 of 305 statewide, top 60%, 1,171 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 557 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $119k implies a 341% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 2.5% in Pell City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.