3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,306 sqft ·
Built 1970
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 7 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,862/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,753
Tax + insurance
−$939
HOA
−$150
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,231
Net cashflow
$788/mo
Annual
$9,460/yr
Cap rate
8.09%
Cash-on-cash
6.44%
DSCR
1.29
1% rule
1.12%
Cash to close
$147,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $525k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $788 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $525k).
Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#12 in TX, #1,027 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: West University El (math 83% / reading 87%, grade A+, #9 of 4,322 statewide, top 0%, 1,114 students, 6% FRL); Pershing Middle (math 36% / reading 49%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 1,390 students, 60% FRL); Lamar H S (math 38% / reading 65%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 3,125 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 71% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+29 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Houston ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $135k; list at $525k implies a 289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $147k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($229k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1P5V3CB29MK1GZ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29