430 County Road 451

Coupland, TX 78615

$435,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,984 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,472/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-662/mo
• Annual: $-7,940/yr
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.52%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $121,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $435k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-662 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (43.2% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $247k (43.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#869 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• Taylor ISD (town): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #726 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.0% in Coupland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.