13546 Lily

St. Hedwig, TX 78152

$206,250C

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,678 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,902/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,082
• Tax + insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $103/mo
• Annual: $1,242/yr
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.15%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $57,750

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $206k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (7.8% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Watts El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 593 students, 44% FRL); Samuel Clemens H S (math 45% / reading 60%, grade C-, #444 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 2,544 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.1% in St. Hedwig — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.