33510 Cedar Creek Ln

Lake Elsinore, CA 92532

$509,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,118 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 229 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,416/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,669
• Tax + insurance: −$780
• HOA: −$175
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$717
• Net cashflow: $-926/mo
• Annual: $-11,109/yr
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.79%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $142,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $509k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-926 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (32.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $342k (32.9% below list).
• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($448k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $342k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#510 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Canyon Elementary (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #311 of 1,571 statewide, top 21%, 789 students, 50% FRL); Canyon Lake Middle (math 44% / reading 64%, grade B-, #78 of 498 statewide, top 15%, 955 students, 51% FRL); Elsinore High (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #332 of 1,170 statewide, top 30%, 2,122 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 120 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 14 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $320k; list at $509k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Elsinore — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.