17005 78th Pl N

Maple Grove, MN 55311

$290,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,715 sqft · Built 2002 · Townhouse · Active · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,628/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$435
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-280/mo
• Annual: $-3,361/yr
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.14%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (9.4% below list).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#54 in MN, #1,353 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D.
• Osseo Public School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #129 of 301 in MN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rush Creek Elementary (math 81% / reading 78%, grade A, #12 of 857 statewide, top 2%, 774 students, 18% FRL); Maple Grove Middle School (math 45% / reading 58%, grade C, #65 of 258 statewide, top 26%, 1,598 students, 30% FRL); Maple Grove Senior High (math 53% / reading 69%, grade C+, #42 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,324 students, 21% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Osseo Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $194k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Maple Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.