Crown (Applewood) Plan

Middletown, OH 45044

$92,995D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 326 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,839/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$129
• Tax + insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$580
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $703/mo
• Annual: $8,433/yr
• Cap rate: 40.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 122.16%
• DSCR: 6.44
• 1% rule: 7.46%
• Cash to close: $6,903

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $93k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $703 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $93k).
• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $170 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $739 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#389 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Middletown City (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #610 of 656 in OH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield Elementary School (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,188 of 1,584 statewide, top 75%, 451 students, 0% FRL); Middletown Middle School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #580 of 654 statewide, top 89%, 941 students, 0% FRL); Middletown High School (math 18% / reading 19%, grade F, #683 of 781 statewide, top 88%, 1,753 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 69% district-wide (69 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 40.5% vs local median 3.8% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.