11861 E 1350 Rd

Stockton, MO 65785

$127,068C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,185 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 268 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,074/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-30/mo
• Annual: $-357/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $35,579

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $127k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-357/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($879 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#456 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Stockton R-I (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #77 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.