7486 Talon Bay Dr

North Port, FL 34287

$388,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,986 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Active · 134 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,827/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,035
• Tax + insurance: −$588
• HOA: −$232
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $-622/mo
• Annual: $-7,458/yr
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.13%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $108,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $388k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-622 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (27.1% below list).
• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $278k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lamarque Elementary School (math 61% / reading 58%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,073 students, 68% FRL); Heron Creek Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 902 students, 72% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 42% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 857 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $247k; list at $388k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in North Port — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $2,827/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 522% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?