1999 Ardmore Hwy

Ardmore, TN 38449

$70,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,982 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,155/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $464/mo
• Annual: $5,563/yr
• Cap rate: 14.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.38%
• DSCR: 2.26
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#359 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln County (rural): math 35% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #24 of 139 in TN (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanche School (327 students, 0% FRL); Lincoln County High School (math 15% / reading 47%, grade F, #72 of 332 statewide, top 21%, 1,201 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 173 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.2% in Ardmore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.