112 Paradise Ct

Stafford Courthouse, VA 22554

$95,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,519/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $1,333/mo
• Annual: $15,999/yr
• Cap rate: 23.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.15%
• DSCR: 3.68
• 1% rule: 2.65%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#270 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 23.1% vs local median 3.0% in Stafford Courthouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.