27409 Blueberry Dr

Cape Charles, VA 23310

$165,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,174 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,722/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $330/mo
• Annual: $3,955/yr
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.56%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#420 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, cost of living D+.
• Northampton County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #103 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kiptopeke Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 351 students, 100% FRL); Northampton Middle (math 37% / reading 67%, grade C+, #218 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 206 students, 99% FRL); Northampton High (math 47% / reading 77%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 433 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 68% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northampton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.2% in Cape Charles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.