15027 W Quincy Cir

Manhattan, IL 60442

$307,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · Built 2020 · Townhouse · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,610
• Tax + insurance: −$512
• HOA: −$182
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-92/mo
• Annual: $-1,103/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $85,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $307k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (8.8% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $280k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#396 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lincoln Way Chsd 210 (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #60 of 620 in IL (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln-Way East High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #44 of 693 statewide, top 7%, 2,749 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $206k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in Manhattan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.