53069 Cason Rd

Independence, LA 70443

$72,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $727/mo
• Annual: $8,723/yr
• Cap rate: 18.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.27%
• DSCR: 2.93
• 1% rule: 2.15%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $727 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#351 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 3.9% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of maintenance require significant work to improve curb appeal.
• Major: Flooring — Worn and in need of replacement to improve the living space.
• Major: Interior walls — Peeling paint and potential structural issues require significant work to improve the living space.
• Major: Roof — Not visible, but given the overall condition, it is likely in need of repair or replacement.
• Major: Exterior siding — Visible damage and wear require significant work to improve the exterior appearance.
• Major: Windows — Old and likely in need of replacement to improve the living space.