3410 Springwood Circle Cir

Hamilton Branch, CA 96137

$299,000F

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,056 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,981/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$659
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-663/mo
• Annual: $-7,954/yr
• Cap rate: 3.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.50%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-663 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (39.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (33.8% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,156 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.