1507 E Bowie St

Beeville, TX 78102

$48,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,186 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 205 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $987/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $315/mo
• Annual: $3,783/yr
• Cap rate: 14.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.15%
• DSCR: 2.25
• 1% rule: 2.06%
• Cash to close: $13,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($987 rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $42k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#354 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Beeville ISD (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #638 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fadden-Mckeown-Chambliss El (math 28% / reading 26%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 562 students, 79% FRL); Moreno J H (math 10% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 705 students, 84% FRL); A C Jones H S (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,041 students, 81% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 15 units permitted in Bee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bee County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.4% in Beeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.